View from the Enemy: Adamson Soaring Falcons

Misery loves company. All of a sudden, the Adamson Soaring Falcons are a stone away from the hapless UP Fighting Maroons. Both teams are now miles away from the road to Final Four. Though this match is technically no-bearing, do not expect that this game will be as dull as dishwater as they will try to record that very elusive W. At the end of the match, there can only one losing skid that will live on. One misery will have to stop.

By the Numbers: Hallmarks of Losing

This game will feature two teams who are suffering from lengthy losing streaks. Well in the case of my beloved UP, it has been a year of nothing but loss after loss. While for Adamson, they have tallied six straight losses after a 3-2 start this season. Let us take a look at the performances of the two squads during their respective skids.

Points per
100 possessions
Opponent’s Points
per 100 possessions
ORB% 3PT%
UP (this season) 85.7 101.8  35.2% 25.8%
Adamson (last six games) 87.1 101.7  35.0% 22.8%

On the average, teams scored around 90 points per 100. Looking at the two teams’  points per 100, it can only be said that they are not performing well offensively. On the other end, their defense are atrocious, given by the enormity of the points they allowed per 100.

Another similarity in their performance during their skids is the inability to clobber down the rebounds. Given the lack of size and quality big men, it is expected that the Fighting Maroons will perform poorly on the rebounding department. However, it cannot be said of the Falcons as their frontcourt is being paraded by Ingrid Sewa and Rodeny Brondial.

Three pointers also not falling for both teams. Their best gunners are struggling as of late. Adamson’s Roider Cabrera is only making 24% of his three-point attempts in the last six games. Jericho Cruz, not really known for his perimeter game, has attempted 2o triples during their skid but only converted four. On the other hand, UP’s leading scorer Joseph Marata has only shot 26.6% from the downtown. In UP’s last game, Marata attempted seven triples but converted zero.

Keys to the Game

1. Hack-a-Sewa

Unfortunately, UP lacks quality bigmen to contain Ingrid Sewa. Raul Soyud is a relativley small center to keep up with him in the post. Reserves Andrew Harris and Martin Pascual are really not that physically able to bang bodies with the big men as seen in UP’s loss to DLSU. Probably, the best thing to do for UP to stop Sewa’s  possible explosion is to send him to the foul line. In Sewa’s first three games, he was shooting well from the foul line, notching an impressive 83% clip. But stranger things had happened. Since those three games,  Sewa has been shooting a very low 36%. So there. Hack-a-Sewa!

2. Tale of three-pointers

Due to lack of offensive options in the post, UP has to resort to execute a lot of their offense in the perimeter. UP lives and dies in threes. It is no coincidental that UP lost against DLSU in the second half as they only shot 1-14 (7%) from downtown. The Fighting Maroons have a lot of willing players out there to shot those triples. Of course, Marata is a given as he attempts almost nine triples per contest. Then, there are Henry Asilum who surprisingly is shooting 41%  and Joseph Ligad, a non-reluctant shooter (just don’t ask me his percentage).

3. Rebounds

In their first round encounter, UP were outrbounded by 24, 27-51. Come on, UP. Come up with better rebounding effort. Do not rely too much on Soyud.

Prediction

I dare say UP will take their first victory. Why? UP is no longer strange to that sick feeling in these losing streaks. They are very much used to this. Meanwhile, Adamson, who had high hopes of making it to Final Four, are not really accustomed to this misery. UP will come up in this game with greater energy and focus. UP over Adamson, by at most eight points.