This is it!

All that losing, all those trials and errors have to culminate in this one game against the UP Fighting Maroons. Yes, the Maroons already have a two-win advantage. Yes, the Falcons have yet to win at all. Yes, this is a brand spanking new UP squad with a winning attitude. But the Adamson Soaring Falcons have only begun to find their groove. The last time they played, the Falcons ushered in an era of change, this meeting will do the same.

After staying a threat against league leaders FEU Tamaraws, the Falcons look like they’ve figured just enough to get them by for the rest of the season, and it all starts with Papi Sarr.

Without a doubt, the Falcons have been looking for Sarr to become the center of their offense. He has had a spam-rate of nearly one touch every three possessions for the Falcons. On average the spamming hasn’t paid off because his offensive rating is only at a meager 76.2 points per 100 possessions, but at its peak, when the Falcons openly spammed him against FEU at a rate of 36.8% he produced an above average and actually encouraging 92.9 offensive rating.

Before the FEU game, Sarr’s offensive output mellowed around the 60 mark, spiking against UE at 80. This improvement is so crucial to the Falcons simply because they need any kind of consistency or dependence to anchor their game around.

Without a go-to scorer, the Falcons’ offense will be aimlessly moving the ball. Aimlessly moving the ball leads to turnovers, turnovers lead to fastbreak opportunities for the opponent, fastbreak opportunities for the opponent lead to bad defense and the cycle continues.

Against UP, the Falcons need to center on this new found focus but not get carried away and think that this alone will be enough to get by. UP is not a team to be underestimated.

The Fighting Maroons earned early success both on offensive and defensive fronts. Against UE, both teams had very poor offensive output planting their offensive ratings both at the 60-range. But the game after their own offensive output spiked at 92.3 against De La Salle.

Overall, the Maroons have trouble running their offense which led to their skid. The Falcons on the other hand have trouble stopping teams. But if both teams play the same way as their last game, the Falcons have a big chance of coming out with their first one. (Oh I hope so)

Winning conditions:

  • Pape Sarr USG% is less than 27%
  • Jett Manuel eFG% is less than 35%
  • Diego Dario TS% is less than 40%
  • Adamson Soaring Falcons eFG is greater than 40%