They got out first, but it doesn’t mean we can’t get out of the cellar at their expense.

Yes, NU Bulldogs just got their first win at the expense of UST Growling Tigers, which just earlier beat Adamson Soaring Falcons. But this is not going to be a walk in the park for the defending champions because Adamson is out for blood after being ripped in their game against DLSU Green Archers.

The offensive output of these two teams are nearly similar with Adamson holding a slight advantage. However, NU has the definite advantage when it comes to defensive impact with a wide margin over Adamson’s points allowed per 100 possessions. Based on this alone, Adamson is likely to lose, not because they won’t be able to score, but because they won’t be able to stop NU from scoring.

But, there’s a way!

Adamson holds a big advantage in the rebounding department. Surprisingly, this small team is one of the top rebounding teams in the league so far, with no small thanks to Papi Sarr who has been a rebound gobbling machine. Alfred Aroga will definitely pose an inside threat to the undersized Falcons, but if they continue their rebounding ways, the game will an interesting one for sure.

Fortunately for the Falcons, they play a much faster pace than NU, which slightly negates their lack of efficiency. Scoring will not be a problem for them this game as in most their games. Defense will.

Expect Kyle Neypes and Gelo Alolino to try and enforce their will against the Falcons defense. With Sarr busy with Aroga, the Falcons have only Ivan Villanueva and maybe Dawn Ochea as last line of defense should a drive get through, but those two have not been performing well on defense as of late.

The Falcons have already shown that they can take care of the ball, limiting their turnovers to 15 instead of the usual 27 against DLSU, and will need to keep this trend going.  Offensively, this team is on the right track. Their effort is where it needs to be as shown by their rebounding numbers. The last piece to this Falcon puzzle is defense.

Winning conditions:

  • Pape Sarr USG% is less than 21%.
  • Alfred Arroga USG% is held down to 20%.
  • Gelo Alolino eFG% is held to less than 40%.
  • Adamson Soaring Falcons TOV% is less than 30%.
  • Adamson Soaring Falcons OREB% is more than 40%.
TIME: 4:00 P.M.